You Won't Believe What This Fortune Teller Predicts for Publishing in 2015!

 Smart phones, not-so-smart publishers, and hot new trends: 24 crazy predictions for the new year

Media consultant

When glancing at my article in the current issue of Publishing Executive, I had a revelation: Now that one of the publishing industry's leading magazines had called on me for predictions, I’ve graduated from blogger to media pundit.

And then my heart sank as I realized I had violated a cardinal rule of the International Order of Pompous Media Pundits: In its six-plus years of existence, Dead Tree Edition had never published a year-end list of predictions for the coming year.

With 2015 already under way and prognostication being new to me, I scraped up 50 bucks – Dead Tree Edition’s entire annual research budget – and headed over to Madame Marie, a local fortune teller and door-to-door magazine saleswoman.

Here are her 24 startling (mostly) predictions about magazines, the three Ps (postal, paper, and printing), social media, and publishing in general for 2015. If some turn out to be true, you can be sure I’ll be writing “told ya so” pieces in the next 12 months. And you can blame the wrong ones on Madame Marie:

1) Postal rates will not decrease, even though the exigent surcharge is set to expire this summer. Not sure if that will be from a court order or Congressional action. When I asked Madame Marie to explain, she responded, “What, you think I have crystal ball or something? All I know is, don’t ever bet on government getting rid of a temporary tax or fee.”

2) More web sites will jump into the printed magazine business. But they will not be welcomed into the fraternity of consumer-magazine publishers because they won’t have bloated ratebases or sell annula subscriptions for $5.

A postal bankruptcy would be, like, a bummer, man.

3) Three-dimensional printing will grow almost as fast as the buzz about it. By June, ad agencies will start demanding makegoods if their clients’ magazine ads aren't printed in 3D.

4) USPS will announce a new strategic plan called Seven Six Three – delivering Amazon packages seven days a week, other parcels Monday through Saturday, and everything else three days a week.

5) If you think native advertising is bad, wait until you see foreign-born advertising.

6) Mark Zuckerberg’s new book club will spread like wildfire, until people start seeing spammy “sponsored” posts and photos of distant acquaintances’ new puppies in their books.

7) Despite a decent economy, the market for huge yachts will plummet as billionaires join in the new craze for tasteful displays of wealth – buying a daily newspaper. When I asked Madame Marie whether the newspapers would still struggle, she said, “If you have to ask how much money they will lose, you can’t afford to buy a newspaper.”

8) Congressional Republicans will try to push the U.S. Postal Service into bankruptcy to break the postal unions – until voters realize a USPS bankruptcy would turn Forever Stamps into Never Stamps.

BoSacks flyin' high: Our consultant's
source of inspiration and insight

9) Congress’ next attempt at postal reform will be putting USPS up for sale. FedEx and UPS will quickly say, “No thanks.” However, the idea of buying out the middleman will intrigue Amazon, until it runs the numbers and realizes that, with proper accounting for pensions and retiree benefits, the Postal Service would be profitable. And you know how Amazon hates profits. To console himself, Jeff Bezos will buy another newspaper.

10) Amazon will go back to working on delivery drones.

11) Wal-Mart will announce the development of anti-drone missiles that can be mounted on store rooftops.

12) A major publisher will redesign its web site, then realize the snazzy new look and upgraded user experience can’t be seen on smartphones, which represent 80% of the site’s visitors.

13) “Big data” will be so hot that tech companies will try to differentiate themselves with new projects involving “Really Big Data,” “Huge Data,” and “Massive Data.”

A source of insomnia -- and much cursing

14) Tablets will be linked to insomnia. We’re not talking about the recent study proving that using e-readers before bedtime disrupts people’s circadian rhythms and makes it hard to fall asleep. (That’s so 2014!) We’re talking about MediaVest, the ad agency that is refusing to pay for the portion of a magazine’s circulation distributed via tablet editions. As Madame Marie put it, while meditating on a 1978 copy of High Times with the BoSacks centerfold, “Magazine advertising executives will stay up all night wondering whether to grow a pair and tell MediaVest it needs a rectal-cranial extraction.”

15) With tight supply, rising prices (for now), and strong dollar, the U.S. will be the market of choice for manufacturers of coated paper around the world. Because of low energy costs and the recent shuttering of inefficient mills, North American producers will be able and willing to protect market share by cutting prices.

16) As usual, “that damned newsstand” will be a frequent utterance of magazine publishers. But in 2015 the phrase will refer to the long-neglected Apple Newsstand for marketing iPad editions of magazines. The regular newsstand system – the one that sells printed magazines – will actually register gains in 2015 after years of declining sales.

Google What?

17) The content-marketing bubble will burst when non-publishing companies realize how few people are viewing their content and that it's not generating actual sales. Some will find it more efficient to use -- perish the thought -- paid advertising.

18) Trying to ride the next big wave, a former content-marketing/social-media/SEO consultant will publish a book called How Publishers Can Profit From Chris Christie-sized Data.

19) Web advertisers will have a radical idea: Only pay for ad impressions that are seen by actual human beings.

20) Google will pull the plug on Google Plus. No one will notice the difference.

The next big thing in social media

21) The big news in social media will be a simple new app that lets people share their pain and disappointment by sending out messages saying, simply, “Oy!”

22) Magazine publishers will pour lots of resources into cool new ancillary enterprises that they will brag about at industry conferences. A few of these ventures will actually turn a profit.

23) Some magazine ads will still include QR codes. And consumers still won’t bother scanning them.

24) “Oh, one last thing,” added Madame Marie, still clutching her sacred copy of High Times. ‘Linkbait’ headlines designed to exploit people’s curiosity will take over the Internet. Even your blog will join the trend.” She’s already been proven right on that one.

Who Killed the Magazine App?: 9 Suspects

OK, I apologize for the over-wrought headline: We publishers tend to be trend-happy. When something that was supposed to be the Next Big Thing turns out to be The Most Recent Overhyped Thing, we reflexively start debating whether it’s dead.

“I would not say the app is dead, but it might have a bullet wound to the leg,” app designer Josh Klenert remarked recently in a discussion of -- you guessed it -- whether magazine apps are dead.

In 2010, all the cool people in publishing were working on apps. But four years after the Star of Bethlehem appeared over Cupertino to announce the birth of the iPad, sales of tablet-based editions are barely a footnote for most magazine publishers, constituting a few percentage points of total circulation.

Pundits and industry suppliers keep proclaiming the inevitable dominance of the magazine app and the Second Coming of Steve Jobs, but most publishers have moved on. Their thought leaders and business-development resources are now focused mostly on the Web – and occasionally, God forbid, on print.

Just an afterthought
Tablet magazines have become an afterthought, intended mostly to impress 22-year-old media buyers and to shave a few percentage points off the 3P (print, paper, and postage) costs of meeting magazines’ bloated circulation guarantees.

So what happened? Despite the obvious convenience and sometimes stunning beauty of tablet-based magazines, nine forces are preventing them from thriving:

1. Publishers: The magazine industry has been widely criticized for its impatience, throwing in the towel too quickly on app development. In 2010, still smarting and scrambling from the economic recession, we publishers were still in the mindset, “If you can’t pull your weight, get the hell out of the lifeboat.” So when tablet editions showed no signs of immediate success, we cut off their rations. It didn't help that we undercut our apps by putting most of our content on the free web and by offering ridiculous discounts on print subscriptions but not on digital ones.


2. Advertisers: “Advertisers remain skeptical about paying for digital circulation,” Thea Selby of Next Steps Marketing wrote recently. “They are not yet convinced, even though the advertising is placed in a magazine-like setting, that they should be paying for the digital magazine advertising as they pay for print, based on circulation.”


3. Apple: The iPad’s creator teased publishers by creating its Newsstand as a way to encourage exploration and purchase of digital magazines, then neglecting it until it became an “unmanageable beast.” Now it’s mostly good for finding crappy Russian porn mags. It’s almost as if Apple’s lawyers told it to screw up its magazine business so that it wouldn’t get sucked into another antitrust investigation after the feds are through flaying its book-selling operation.


4. Google: With its menagerie of updates – Panda, Penguin, and the like – the giant search engine keeps tilting the Web toward credible publishers with bylined articles by respected authors. That gives publishers more incentive to put new content on the Web and not inside the walled garden of an app. The one place where Google has failed publishers is with e-editions: When it comes to search involving digital magazines, Google does “a worse job than Apple,” says Neil Morgan of Magvault.com, who’s no lover of Apple’s Newsstand.


5. Amazon: The e-commerce giant spoiled us by making books, both print and e-book, so easy to find and sample. It even has an elaborate recommendation engine that tells us about books we're likely to like. But it hasn't turned its exhaustive data or its magical algorithms loose on finding new subscribers for Kindle magazines.


6. Consumers: C’mon, despite all the whining about the discoverability of apps, people can probably find an electronic edition of their favorite magazine if they do some searching, right? Yes, but American consumers generally don’t go looking for magazines to buy. They pick one up on impulse at the grocery store, at the hair salon, or at a friend’s house. They have to be cajoled into subscribing with breathless marketing copy and special discounts. Hell, when it comes to apps they have to be cajoled just to look at a free sample issue. And when they do subscribe to an e-edition, they often forget about it (and therefore end up not renewing) because they still pay more attention to what’s in their snailbox than to the notifications on their tablet.


7. Angry Birds and its ilk: Despite an owner’s best intentions, there’s something about a tablet that wants to be more toy than tool. You’ve got a few minutes of down time and a tablet in your hands: Are you going to start plowing through that article on the global debt crisis – or try to beat your personal-best score?


8. Netflix: Streaming videos can look fabulous on a high-end tablet. Yet another distraction.


9. Smart phones: Phablets and app-heavy smart phones have turned tablets from a must-have item into a nice-to-have-if-you’ve got-some-bucks-to-spare luxury. Smartphone sales are booming, far eclipsing unit sales of tablets. iPad sales were actually down 16% in the First Quarter. When publishers said “mobile strategy” three years ago, they had tablets in mind; now the phrase means making your web site more smart-phone friendly.

Related articles:

• A Troubling Sign for Tablet Magazines? 
• How Google Is Becoming the Magazine Industry's New Best Friend
• 8 Media Trends You May Have Missed in 2013 
• A Renaissance for Print, Or Is Flat Just the New "Up"?

A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Funeral of Print Media

Web publishers launching print magazines, e-book sales plateauing, slow adoption of tablet magazines, and now a profitable U.S. Postal Service: Whatever happened to the death of print?

I recall a magazine editor parading around the office in 2009 and announcing, “Print is dead.” Sure, I recognized it as the exaggeration of a middle-aged journalist trying desperately to prove he was hip to the digital age.

Still, it looked as if he had the basic trend nailed. Although I’m a print guy, I had to admit that within a few years – say, 2013 – print would probably be well along the road to Buggy Whip Lane.

A CueCat, from the author's personal collection of Magazine Failures

But 2013 is turning out to be the year that print media didn’t die. Let’s take a look at some recent events:

Postal profits
The U.S. Postal Service revealed Friday that it was profitable in the year that ended on Sept. 30. OK, the official news release says USPS lost $5 billion, but that included a $5.6 billion payment for pre-funded retiree health benefits that it skipped.

Such payments are in reality low-interest loans to the federal government that mask some of the federal deficit. They're a vestige of the era when USPS was the government’s cash cow.

The $5.6 billion is not truly an expense, and the retiree-benefits shenanigans are so politically controversial that the missed payment will probably be written off. USPS's cash position is still precarious, but better than it was.

The return of junk mail
It wasn’t just downsizing that led to a successful year for the Postal Service. The volume of Standard mail – such as direct mail, catalogs, and promotional flyers – increased 1.8%. Wasn’t everything supposed to have shifted to email promotions and online ordering by now?

Web to print
This month has already seen the launch of two significant print magazines, Allrecipes and Politico, from brands that were previously web-only. That’s the perfect rebuttal to Michael Wolff’s recent analysis for The Guardian, in which he asked, “What is the business basis for print? In fact, is there any reason print should exist?”

If Michael put a bit more effort into looking at actual data and less effort puking up vitriol all over Time Inc., he would know the answer: For most magazine publishers, print is still where the money is.

E-gads
When I headlined an article early last year Are E-Book Sales Reaching a Plateau?, many laughed off the article as wishful thinking from a print dinosaur even though it was based on an objective study.

But three weeks ago, Digital Book World wrote, “Once thought destined to reach 50% or 80% of all book buying and reading in the U.S., ebooks have stalled out on their way up to higher altitude.”

And more recently Mike Shatzkin, one of the leading commentators on the digital transformation of the book industry, actually used the P-word: “Recent evidence suggests that ebooks have hit either a point of serious resistance or a temporary plateau.”

App-oplexy
I got similar blowback for this year’s article A Troubling Sign for Tablet Magazines?, which pointed out a study showing that three-fourths of U.S. tablet owners prefer print magazines to digital editions.

Many articles have subsequently come out about the surprisingly slow adoption of tablet magazines and the struggles publishers are having with selling digital subscriptions.

“Apple is a fickle partner,” Jasper Jackson recently wrote, citing various challenges for magazine publishers. "Until these issues are dealt with, or a genuinely credible competing platform emerges, digital magazine marketers will be working with one hand tied behind their back.”

Print still struggles
Don’t get me wrong: Not all is well in the world of print media. The Web is driving most daily newspapers to the point of extinction. (I’m not naïve enough to think Jeff Bezos’ purchase of The Washington Post is a vote for print. Methinks his long-term vision for that hallowed journal doesn’t have much to do with putting ink on paper.)

With the continuing decline of profitable First Class mail and a Congress that can’t pass any meaningful reform, the U.S. Postal Service is still on the ropes.

Newsstand sales are still declining at about 10% annually. Retail chains keep reducing the space devoted to magazines even though it’s their most profitable category. Dysfunctional sales channels, you see, are not Apple’s invention.

So don’t expect people to ditch their laptops and smartphones, dig their typewriters out of the attic, or revert to sending handwritten letters instead of texts and emails.

Digital substitution of print will continue, but it won’t always be at the steady or exponential rates the pundits predict. An unsustainable trend cannot be sustained, and inevitable changes often turn out to be quite evitable.

A few digital innovations are immediate game changers. Some need years of refinement to catch on. (Perhaps digital magazines are in this category.) And others burst onto the scene with much buzz but soon go the way of Friendster, PDAs, and the CueCat.

As for that editor who proclaimed four years ago that print is dead? He was recently heard proposing the creation of a new print product.

A Troubling Sign for Tablet Magazines?

A study that purportedly shows tablet users' "preference for digital magazines over print magazines" actually suggests that people really don't like tablet magazines.

"23% of tablet users prefer digital magazines on tablets over print," says a blog post from Mequoda about its new study "How American Adults Consume Magazines on Tablets." The blog post and trade-media coverage interpret the data as meaning that tablet magazines are about to enter a boom period.

But here's the real news: Three-fourths of U.S. tablet users do not prefer digital magazines to print magazines. Read that sentence again: It doesn't say three-fourths of U.S. Luddites or of adults or of magazine readers; it says three-fourths of tablet users.

Isn't that a bit like people with Blu-Ray players preferring to watch VHS tapes?

In the same study, 51% of tablet users prefer streaming video to broadcast and 39% prefer e-books to printed books.

Yes, tablet use is growing. Mequoda found that a majority of U.S. internet users have access to a tablet. And yes people are learning to do more and more with them. Tablets are displacing laptops for many people.

But tablet owners apparently haven't fallen in love with reading magazines on their tablets.That may be why Newsweek has reportedly gone from 1.5 million subscribers to 470,000 less than six months after dropping print to go digital-only.

Despite all the hype about iPads and Kindles, U.S. magazine publishers are making far more money on the web and generally wondering when their tablet investments will pay off.

In fact, though no one seems to talk about it, the real game-changing technology for subscription magazines has been browser-based editions -- that is, digital replicas that can be read on any computer. Many a B2B publication has shifted 50% or more of its subscription base to these simple page-flip editions, but few print-and-digital publications get even 10% of their circulation from tablet editions.

Other recent Dead Tree Edition commentary on the magazine industry includes:

• My Heartfelt Apology to the Publishing Industry  
• How Google Is Becoming the Magazine Industry's New Best Friend  
• What Magazine Publishers Can Learn From "The Da Vinci Code" Giveaway

Are E-Book Sales Reaching a Plateau?

When the U.S. magazine industry gets hot and bothered about the latest craze, you can usually bet that trend is about to run out of steam.

E-books were the talk of many magazine people at this week’s Publishing Business Conference in New York, my spies tell me. The web – which is so hopelessly last year – was hardly mentioned. Everyone wanted to chat about their e-books and tablet editions, more so about their cool factor than about whether they were earning much profit.

Meanwhile, the book-publishing half of the huge conference was getting some rather startling news: The once-exploding sales growth of e-books in the U.S. has slowed dramatically, according to research from RR Bowker. (My correspondent’s account is corroborated by Paul Biba of TeleRead.) This just proves Stein's Law of Economics: An unsustainable trend cannot be sustained.

“We went from exponential to incremental growth,” said Kelly Gallagher, a Bowker vice president, who also referred to "some level of saturation" in the U.S. market. The breathless predictions of two years ago, which suggested that the growth of e-books would soon shut down all the book printing presses and brick-and-mortar bookstores, turned out to be way off the mark.

Dear Print, We Print Buyers Now Want an Open Marriage

Don’t get us wrong, Print. We still love you. We might look at web pages and tablets, but there’s nothing like holding you in our hands.

We still prefer the beauty and permanence of Print to the ephemeral nature of digital media. Geez, did you see how that photo came out on the iPad? It’s gorgeous. It makes me realize that page in the Print edition was a little out of regis – Oh, where was I?

It’s just that you alone can no longer fulfill all of our career needs. We can’t merely flirt with other media; we need the freedom to get fully involved with them.

Margie Dana, founder of Print Buyers International and the godmother of print buyers everywhere, has been encouraging us to branch out into other media. In this video, she even says, “You’re not leaving Print. It’s Print and, not Print or.”

See, even our godmother says a ménage a trois with other media is OK.

“I for one am 'retooling’ my abilities to go with the times,” commented a print buyer named Paul recently to the Print Production Professionals group on LinkedIn. “This way I can produce work for print and web. I've got twenty years of career left and don't want to be a dinosaur.”

He was responding to a recent article quoting forecaster Roman Hohol as saying that print media soon “will become less relevant and more expensive.” (As if that weren’t bad enough, Hohol did a webinar last week in which he said, “We haven’t yet felt the impact of tablets” on print demand and that tablets “will be as revolutionary in the way we consume media as Gutenberg’s printing press was more than 500 years ago.” Oy vey.)

You have taught us so much, like how to manage workflows and how to carry out customized manufacturing processes. It turns out that producing Web pages, apps, emails, and Facebook pages needs better workflows than the disorganized new-media people can concoct. And building digital content is a lot like doing customized manufacturing, except we’re producing virtual things rather than physical things.

So while our bosses may hate you, especially your costs and long timelines, they love what we’ve learned from you. And we’ll keep trying to show everyone how sexy and up to date you are by slipping in QR codes and other gimmicks.

Thanks for understanding, Print. By the way, could you scoot over a bit? We’ve invited some friends from other media to join us here in bed.

Under Siege: The Outlook for Print Media Is Even Worse Than We Thought, Expert Says -- But Publishers May Prosper

If you think the internet revolution has been rough on print media, wait until you see what the tablet revolution does, a paper-industry forecaster says.

As if there weren’t enough gloom and doom in the paper and printing industries these days, Roman Hohol says tablets and other digital devices will depress the demand for printed media even faster than most forecasts predict. But the director of the marketing practice for Forest Industry Consulting also sees signs that the tablet revolution will benefit many publishers.

“I believe that most [paper] industry forecasts underestimate the impact of digital media on graphic paper demand, not wanting to appear too negative to their clients,” Hohol told Dead Tree Edition. “We have developed an outlook for our clients that is quite negative.”

Hohol will present that outlook in more detail during the Industry Intelligence webcast “How the mobile media revolution will impact global graphic paper demand”, which will air at 2 p.m. EST Thursday and be available for download thereafter. Hohol gave Dead Tree Edition a sneak peek at the webcast, including the three main reasons he believes the global publication-papers industry is “under siege”: