A Major Print-Media Bankruptcy Is Likely in 2012, Voters Say

A major print-related company is likely to go bankrupt this year, according to the vast majority of voters in a Dead Tree Edition poll that ended tonight. The voters just can't agree on which company it will be.

Out of 743 voters, only 158 (21%) chose "None of the above" on the question of which four print-dependent U.S. companies would go belly up in 2012. Leading the pack was Barnes & Noble, with 227 votes -- which still means that 70% of the voters think it won't go bankrupt this year.

With 161 votes (21%), Quad/Graphics edged out Verso Paper (157 votes; 21%) for second place, with the U.S. Postal Service not far behind at 153 votes (20%).

A Surprise Leader in the Print-Media Bankruptcy Sweepstakes

Which would you rather own: paper mills, large printing plants, a leading e-tablet platform, or the U.S. postal system?

Here’s another way to look at it: Which of those assets does not have to contend with overcapacity in a shrinking market.

In both cases, I thought the answer overwhelmingly favored tablets, which is why the results so far of the current Dead Tree Edition poll (in the right column, just below the first ad) surprise me so much. The 30% of voters who think Barnes & Noble (owner of the Nook tablet platform) will go bankrupt this year is well ahead of the number voting for Quad/Graphics (23%; printing presses), the U.S. Postal Service (22%), and Verso (paper mills, 20%).

Update: Final poll results are at A Major Print-Media Bankruptcy Is Likely in 2012, Voters Say.

Financial markets seem to have pegged Verso as the most likely to succumb among the three private companies. Its market value has dropped precipitously in the past year, to 84% below its peak and less than 1/30th of annual revenue. B&N and Quad both have market values of about 1/10th their annual sales.

The comments about the article introducing the poll, both on this site and in various LinkedIn groups, are some of the best I’ve ever seen. I extended the voting deadline by a week to 3 p.m. Hawaii time (8 p.m. Eastern) this Tuesday because I find the comments and the voting so interesting. As they say in Chicago, vote early and vote often.

Here are some of the best comments:

Dear Print, We Print Buyers Now Want an Open Marriage

Don’t get us wrong, Print. We still love you. We might look at web pages and tablets, but there’s nothing like holding you in our hands.

We still prefer the beauty and permanence of Print to the ephemeral nature of digital media. Geez, did you see how that photo came out on the iPad? It’s gorgeous. It makes me realize that page in the Print edition was a little out of regis – Oh, where was I?

It’s just that you alone can no longer fulfill all of our career needs. We can’t merely flirt with other media; we need the freedom to get fully involved with them.

Margie Dana, founder of Print Buyers International and the godmother of print buyers everywhere, has been encouraging us to branch out into other media. In this video, she even says, “You’re not leaving Print. It’s Print and, not Print or.”

See, even our godmother says a ménage a trois with other media is OK.

“I for one am 'retooling’ my abilities to go with the times,” commented a print buyer named Paul recently to the Print Production Professionals group on LinkedIn. “This way I can produce work for print and web. I've got twenty years of career left and don't want to be a dinosaur.”

He was responding to a recent article quoting forecaster Roman Hohol as saying that print media soon “will become less relevant and more expensive.” (As if that weren’t bad enough, Hohol did a webinar last week in which he said, “We haven’t yet felt the impact of tablets” on print demand and that tablets “will be as revolutionary in the way we consume media as Gutenberg’s printing press was more than 500 years ago.” Oy vey.)

You have taught us so much, like how to manage workflows and how to carry out customized manufacturing processes. It turns out that producing Web pages, apps, emails, and Facebook pages needs better workflows than the disorganized new-media people can concoct. And building digital content is a lot like doing customized manufacturing, except we’re producing virtual things rather than physical things.

So while our bosses may hate you, especially your costs and long timelines, they love what we’ve learned from you. And we’ll keep trying to show everyone how sexy and up to date you are by slipping in QR codes and other gimmicks.

Thanks for understanding, Print. By the way, could you scoot over a bit? We’ve invited some friends from other media to join us here in bed.

We Already Have A Veterans Job Corps -- It's Called the Postal Service

Hours after a leading Congressman urged massive job cuts at the largest civilian employer of military veterans, President Obama proposed creation of a Veterans Job Corps.

"With the bipartisan support of this Congress, we are providing new tax credits to companies that hire vets," Obama said Tuesday night during his State of the Union address. "Michelle and Jill Biden have worked with American businesses to secure a pledge of 135,000 jobs for veterans and their families. And tonight, I’m proposing a Veterans Job Corps that will help our communities hire veterans as cops and firefighters, so that America is as strong as those who defend her."

Those 135,000 jobs don't quite equal the estimated number of vets who already work for the United States Postal Service.Veterans preference has long been part of USPS's hiring practices and culture, leading to approximately one-fourth of its current employees having military experience.